BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Red Crossbill in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 373% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+373%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 373% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red Crossbill In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.004.1
20272.00.004.1
20282.00.004.1
20292.00.004.1
20302.00.004.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Comanche PkCOLORADO592024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO482024
SawmillARIZONA382008
PowderhornCOLORADO372018
FayetteUTAH301993
Mount EvansCOLORADO232024
Ryan ParkWYOMING222025
Pinos CreekCOLORADO211990
Stillwater PassCOLORADO182007
RichfieldUTAH182000
CounselorNEW-MEXICO172001
TincupCOLORADO162025
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO142012
Blackhead PkCOLORADO112025
Wasatch NfUTAH112024
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO102025
Deadman Rd.COLORADO102025
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO92024
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO92025
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO91999
Grizzly RdgeUTAH92025
Skyline DrivUTAH92025
Dry ParkARIZONA82025
GuffeyCOLORADO82024
SummitvilleCOLORADO82021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.