BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+380%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Red Crossbill In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.2
20262.00.004.2
20272.00.004.2
20282.00.004.2
20292.00.004.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Comanche PkCOLORADO592024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO482024
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO472024
Fletcher PkWYOMING402016
SawmillARIZONA382008
PowderhornCOLORADO372018
FayetteUTAH301993
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO242023
Mount EvansCOLORADO232024
Pinos CreekCOLORADO211990
Rollins PassCOLORADO212022
Stillwater PassCOLORADO182007
RichfieldUTAH182000
CounselorNEW-MEXICO172001
WarbonnetWYOMING172024
PinonCOLORADO162024
Ryan ParkWYOMING152023
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO142012
FlattopsCOLORADO122014
Wasatch NfUTAH112024
Dry ParkARIZONA102024
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO92024
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO91999
Heber Mtn.UTAH92024
GuffeyCOLORADO82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.