BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Sierra Nevada has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-9%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Red Crossbill in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Red Crossbill In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.003.3
20260.900.003.3
20270.890.003.3
20280.880.003.3
20290.870.003.3

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA112023
ChilcootCALIFORNIA112024
StrawberryCALIFORNIA82001
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA51996
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA52002
LumberyardCALIFORNIA32012
GeneseeCALIFORNIA32014
GoumazCALIFORNIA32011
Forest HillCALIFORNIA32002
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA32016
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA22014
RivertonCALIFORNIA22007
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA22018
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA22002
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21994
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA22007
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA22019
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12024
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12013
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12019
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12022
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12024
WawonaCALIFORNIA12008
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.