BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 309% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+309%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 309% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red Crossbill In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.43
20260.160.000.43
20270.160.000.43
20280.160.000.43
20290.170.000.44

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StacyvilleMAINE162023
NewcombNEW-YORK142007
East CalaisVERMONT122024
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE92015
UnderwoodNEW-YORK81983
CharlestonMAINE72017
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE61992
Priestly Br.MAINE62000
LandgroveVERMONT62024
BethelMAINE52010
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE52023
MckeeverNEW-YORK52012
WarrensburgNEW-YORK51969
ReedsMAINE42024
Brownfield 2MAINE42024
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42019
MiddlesexVERMONT42018
Wilson MillsMAINE32024
NesowadnehunMAINE32019
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE32023
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE32023
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK31969
MedwayMAINE22018
AndoverMAINE22018
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.