BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red Crossbill In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Red Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 364% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+364%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 364% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red Crossbill In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.43
20270.160.000.43
20280.160.000.43
20290.170.000.43
20300.170.000.43

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StacyvilleMAINE162023
NewcombNEW-YORK142007
East CalaisVERMONT122024
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE92015
UnderwoodNEW-YORK81983
CharlestonMAINE72017
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE61992
Priestly Br.MAINE62000
BethelMAINE52010
MckeeverNEW-YORK52012
WarrensburgNEW-YORK51969
ReedsMAINE42024
Brownfield 2MAINE42024
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42019
MiddlesexVERMONT42018
Wilson MillsMAINE32024
NesowadnehunMAINE32019
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE32023
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE32023
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK31969
MedwayMAINE22018
AndoverMAINE22018
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE22025
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.