BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red Crossbill In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Red Crossbill in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+90%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red Crossbill has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red Crossbill In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±317%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±317%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red Crossbill in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±317%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.001.9
20260.600.001.9
20270.600.001.9
20280.610.001.9
20290.610.001.9

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red Crossbill in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IrmaWISCONSIN402018
WaskishMINNESOTA301980
MuskallongeMICHIGAN252024
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN182007
GilchristMICHIGAN172016
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN152018
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN151980
McnaughtonWISCONSIN152018
CohassetMINNESOTA141973
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN132024
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA122018
RhinelanderWISCONSIN122019
Iron RiverWISCONSIN112024
AmbergWISCONSIN92018
MinongWISCONSIN82018
MontrealWISCONSIN82024
MellenWISCONSIN82024
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN72007
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA72019
NebishMINNESOTA72018
Washington IWISCONSIN72024
Red LakeMINNESOTA62024
ShingletonMICHIGAN52014
Imp LakeMICHIGAN52018
Rib LakeWISCONSIN52018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.