BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-breasted Sapsucker In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Red-breasted Sapsucker in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 419% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+419%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Sapsucker has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 419% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-breasted Sapsucker In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.22.14.4
20273.32.14.4
20283.32.24.5
20293.42.24.5
20303.42.34.6

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Red-breasted Sapsucker in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chichagof IsALASKA362024
PetersburgALASKA241987
HoonahALASKA202024
Thorne BayALASKA192012
ZaremboALASKA162024
Zimovia StrtALASKA122025
JuneauALASKA112025
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA112025
Beaver CreekALASKA101977
Mitkof IsleALASKA102025
Whale PassALASKA102024
Kuiu IslandALASKA102010
LoraneOREGON102025
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA72022
CougarWASHINGTON72023
GazelleCALIFORNIA62021
Blue RiverOREGON62025
SelmaOREGON62025
Bull RunOREGON62025
Juneau AltALASKA51985
CraigALASKA52025
Fish RockCALIFORNIA52014
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA52019
CinderellaOREGON52025
KamilcheWASHINGTON52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.