BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Sapsucker In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Red-breasted Sapsucker in Coastal California has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-56%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Sapsucker has fallen sharply in Coastal California: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.060.000.17
20250.060.000.17
20260.060.000.17
20270.050.000.17
20280.050.000.17

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Red-breasted Sapsucker in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CalpellaCALIFORNIA31986
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA31971
CohassetCALIFORNIA22019
ValyermoCALIFORNIA22016
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA21980
White RiverCALIFORNIA21990
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA22017
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA22023
StonyfordCALIFORNIA22018
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA11993
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA12003
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA11975
Big BearCALIFORNIA11986
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA12010
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA11992
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA12004
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA12018
Elizabeth LkCALIFORNIA12016
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA12005
TehamaCALIFORNIA11989
MoragaCALIFORNIA11988
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA12013
TiptonCALIFORNIA11975
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA12018
PescaderoCALIFORNIA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.