BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Sapsucker In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Red-breasted Sapsucker in Sierra Nevada has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-breasted Sapsucker has risen sharply in Sierra Nevada: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Red-breasted Sapsucker In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.76–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Sapsucker in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.76–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.732.6
20261.70.742.6
20271.70.742.7
20281.70.752.7
20291.70.762.7

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Red-breasted Sapsucker in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA72022
ChilcootCALIFORNIA72024
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA62024
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA62023
Forest HillCALIFORNIA62022
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA52008
GeneseeCALIFORNIA52024
RivertonCALIFORNIA52023
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA41987
GoumazCALIFORNIA42011
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA32014
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA31994
PaxtonCALIFORNIA32022
WestvilleCALIFORNIA22024
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22024
LumberyardCALIFORNIA22024
StrawberryCALIFORNIA22019
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12021
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11974
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12019
Silver CityCALIFORNIA12012
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12009
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12019
SattleyCALIFORNIA11999
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.