BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Merganser In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Red-breasted Merganser in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-69%Since 1985
18Routes In Region
41Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Red-breasted Merganser has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Merganser in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±187.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029
4.1Projected 2029 index
0.00–1095% range
±187.3%Backtest error
19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.40.0011
20264.30.0011
20274.30.0011
20284.20.0010
20294.10.0010

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Red-breasted Merganser in BCR 2.
Goodnews BayALASKA202005
Kanektok RivALASKA182005
Togiak RiverALASKA172005
Cold BayALASKA132024
KodiakALASKA51984
DillinghamALASKA52019
ChiniakALASKA32024
NomeALASKA32023
Selawik (Short)ALASKA31987
King SalmonALASKA22004
Kodiak 2ALASKA22024
Salmon LakeALASKA22024
TellerALASKA22024
KotzebueALASKA22014
Katmai N.P.ALASKA12000
Cape NomeALASKA12024
CouncilALASKA12024
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA11986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.