BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-breasted Merganser In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Red-breasted Merganser in Boreal Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-87%Since 1969
13Routes In Region
39Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Red-breasted Merganser has collapsed in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-breasted Merganser in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.07 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±498.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2026
0.00Projected 2026 index
0.00–0.3595% range
±498.2%Backtest error
19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20220.000.000.35
20230.000.000.35
20240.000.000.35
20250.000.000.35
20260.000.000.35

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Red-breasted Merganser in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
HovlandMINNESOTA52021
GilchristMICHIGAN42014
DebsMINNESOTA41973
BerglandMICHIGAN21993
HermanMICHIGAN21993
WaskishMINNESOTA21994
Washington IWISCONSIN22011
IshpemingMICHIGAN12012
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN11995
MayfieldMICHIGAN12004
McgregorMINNESOTA11993
BayfieldWISCONSIN11999
WausaukeeWISCONSIN11983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.