BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pygmy Nuthatch In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Pygmy Nuthatch in Great Basin has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+137%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pygmy Nuthatch has surged in Great Basin: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pygmy Nuthatch In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Great Basin is projected to rise about 180% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.34–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+180%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Great Basin is projected to rise about 180% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.34–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.300.99
20260.650.311.00
20270.660.321.0
20280.670.331.0
20290.680.341.0

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Pygmy Nuthatch in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SistersOREGON152024
Bly 2OREGON62022
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON62023
Turnbull NwrWASHINGTON62023
TionestaCALIFORNIA52021
Modoc PointOREGON52018
HackamoreCALIFORNIA42010
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA42019
Badger CreekOREGON41998
PauninaOREGON42013
ReardanWASHINGTON42024
RimrockWASHINGTON41973
SnowdenWASHINGTON41971
MaldenWASHINGTON42023
MacdoelCALIFORNIA32019
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA32003
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA32007
PaisleyOREGON32022
Modoc Point 2OREGON32024
Picture FlatOREGON32021
NubieberCALIFORNIA22002
IngallsCALIFORNIA21996
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA22018
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA22018
DeschutesOREGON22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.