BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pygmy Nuthatch In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Pygmy Nuthatch in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-63%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pygmy Nuthatch has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 133% by 2027 — from 0.05 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±382.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+133%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±382.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 133% by 2027 — from 0.05 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±382.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.130.000.44
20240.130.000.44
20250.120.000.44
20260.120.000.43
20270.120.000.43

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Pygmy Nuthatch in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish RockCALIFORNIA102014
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON71993
NavarroCALIFORNIA42011
Elk LakeOREGON42022
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA22013
GazelleCALIFORNIA22004
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA11972
HullvilleCALIFORNIA11974
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA12012
MccloudCALIFORNIA12021
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA12007
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA11999
DirigioCALIFORNIA12001
French GulchCALIFORNIA12004
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA12008
ShellrockOREGON11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.