BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pygmy Nuthatch In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Pygmy Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+49%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pygmy Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Pygmy Nuthatch In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 2.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 2.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.82.313
20277.92.313
20287.92.413
20297.92.413
20308.02.514

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Pygmy Nuthatch in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FlagstaffARIZONA1042025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO702025
Happy JackARIZONA592025
SprucedaleARIZONA542025
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA412025
AlpineARIZONA352025
PinetopARIZONA292022
Mormon LakeARIZONA281975
Mt. GrahamARIZONA142025
WilliamsARIZONA112025
Forest LakesARIZONA92025
BlueARIZONA61991
Aztec PeakARIZONA51978
PortalARIZONA52025
PrescottARIZONA32025
MaineARIZONA22025
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22025
Carr MtnARIZONA12025
RuckerARIZONA12007
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.