BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pygmy Nuthatch In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Pygmy Nuthatch in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 360% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+360%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pygmy Nuthatch has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 360% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Pygmy Nuthatch In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.06–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±149.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.06–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±149.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.050.38
20260.210.050.38
20270.220.050.38
20280.220.050.38
20290.220.060.39

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Pygmy Nuthatch in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ElbertCOLORADO202024
Kiowa 2COLORADO22024
CrawfordNEBRASKA22019
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA22022
KiowaCOLORADO11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.