BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pygmy Nuthatch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Pygmy Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+94%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pygmy Nuthatch has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pygmy Nuthatch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.98 (95% range 0.36–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pygmy Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.98 (95% range 0.36–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.321.6
20260.960.331.6
20270.970.341.6
20280.980.351.6
20290.980.361.6

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Pygmy Nuthatch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO362024
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO322021
SawmillARIZONA252014
Gold HillCOLORADO232012
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO232012
TsaileARIZONA222023
Deadman Rd.COLORADO182024
ZeniffARIZONA141984
Cheesman LkCOLORADO132022
CortezCOLORADO122005
Angel FireNEW-MEXICO122002
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO122024
GallinasNEW-MEXICO102024
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO82024
Dry ParkARIZONA72024
CebollaNEW-MEXICO72022
GuffeyCOLORADO62024
Navajo LakeUTAH61968
Gold Hill 2COLORADO52024
Bryce CanyonUTAH52024
Comanche PkCOLORADO42024
Marshall PasCOLORADO42012
NuclaCOLORADO42024
Moon PassCOLORADO42011
LudlowCOLORADO42016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.