BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Plumbeous Vireo In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+120%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.08–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.08–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.071.4
20260.730.071.4
20270.730.071.4
20280.740.071.4
20290.740.081.4

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO92024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO82024
ShafterTEXAS51971
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11974
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12016
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12022
PinonNEW-MEXICO12024
QueenNEW-MEXICO12017
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12016
ValentineTEXAS11985
Bear MtnTEXAS12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.