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Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Plumbeous Vireo In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+110%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Plumbeous Vireo In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.74 (95% range 0.09–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.74 (95% range 0.09–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.730.071.4
20270.730.081.4
20280.740.081.4
20290.740.081.4
20300.740.091.4

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO202025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO62025
ShafterTEXAS51971
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11974
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12016
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12022
PinonNEW-MEXICO12024
QueenNEW-MEXICO12017
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12016
ValentineTEXAS11985
Bear MtnTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.