BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Plumbeous Vireo In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+55%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Plumbeous Vireo In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 3.6–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 3.6–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.33.59.1
20266.33.59.2
20276.43.59.2
20286.43.69.3
20296.53.69.3

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA472024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO332023
PinetopARIZONA242022
SprucedaleARIZONA212023
Forest LakesARIZONA182024
AlpineARIZONA172023
FlagstaffARIZONA152022
PrescottARIZONA142022
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA112021
PortalARIZONA112024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO112024
BlueARIZONA101991
WilliamsARIZONA102019
Mt. GrahamARIZONA72023
Carr MtnARIZONA72024
Aztec PeakARIZONA61978
RuckerARIZONA62009
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO52024
Mormon LakeARIZONA31975
PomereneARIZONA32006
SunizonaARIZONA21996
Skull ValleyARIZONA22022
PatagoniaARIZONA12019
MaineARIZONA12021
SahuaritaARIZONA12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.