BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Plumbeous Vireo In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Plumbeous Vireo In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 3.8–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 8.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 3.8–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.53.69.3
20276.53.79.4
20286.63.79.4
20296.63.89.5
20306.73.89.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA592025
SprucedaleARIZONA422025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO252025
PinetopARIZONA242022
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA172025
WilliamsARIZONA152025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA132025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO122025
AlpineARIZONA112025
BlueARIZONA101991
PortalARIZONA102025
Aztec PeakARIZONA61978
RuckerARIZONA62009
PrescottARIZONA52025
Mormon LakeARIZONA31975
PomereneARIZONA32006
Forest LakesARIZONA32025
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO32025
FlagstaffARIZONA22025
SunizonaARIZONA21996
Skull ValleyARIZONA22022
Carr MtnARIZONA22025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22025
PatagoniaARIZONA12025
MaineARIZONA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.