BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Plumbeous Vireo In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Plumbeous Vireo in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Plumbeous Vireo has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.9–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Plumbeous Vireo in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.9–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.83.5
20262.71.83.5
20272.71.93.5
20282.71.93.5
20292.71.93.6

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Plumbeous Vireo in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SawmillARIZONA372014
CokedaleCOLORADO312024
LudlowCOLORADO212016
Bluewater LakeNEW-MEXICO212021
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO182024
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO152024
WalsenburgCOLORADO142024
Douglas PassCOLORADO112024
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO112023
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO102024
PecosNEW-MEXICO102017
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO102024
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO102024
Baxter PassCOLORADO92024
Gribbles PrkCOLORADO92024
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO92024
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO92012
Main CanyonUTAH92024
GooseberryUTAH92024
Fox ParkWYOMING92001
Alton 2UTAH82024
Rifle FallsCOLORADO72019
AltonUTAH72019
Bryce CanyonUTAH72024
TsaileARIZONA62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.