BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Grosbeak In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Pine Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-41%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pine Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±129.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±129.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.39
20260.140.000.39
20270.140.000.39
20280.150.000.39
20290.150.000.39

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Pine Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA661996
JuneauALASKA112006
Copper RiverALASKA102011
HopeALASKA72024
Moose PassALASKA61985
Sitka (Short)ALASKA41984
Mt RainierWASHINGTON42012
YakutatALASKA32023
Mitkof IsleALASKA31994
Kenai Lake (Short)ALASKA31984
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA31981
CraigALASKA22000
Sheep MtnALASKA22004
Thorne BayALASKA22005
SewardALASKA11984
CordovaALASKA12021
Thompson PasALASKA12016
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA12016
Zimovia StrtALASKA12024
Harlequin L.ALASKA12023
HoonahALASKA12021
Whale PassALASKA12012
ZaremboALASKA12021
Chichagof IsALASKA12022
HyderALASKA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.