BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pine Grosbeak In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Pine Grosbeak in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+113%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Grosbeak has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.07–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.07–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.070.46
20260.260.070.46
20270.270.070.46
20280.270.070.46
20290.270.070.46

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Pine Grosbeak in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow PeakCOLORADO52018
Lake City 2COLORADO52024
ComoCOLORADO52024
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO52022
Red CliffCOLORADO42024
Mount EvansCOLORADO42024
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO42004
Trail Ridge RoadCOLORADO42011
Navajo LakeUTAH41968
Pinos CreekCOLORADO31990
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO32023
FlattopsCOLORADO32015
Steamboat L.COLORADO32004
South ForkCOLORADO32024
RadiumCOLORADO32012
Ryan ParkWYOMING32023
Lost LakeCOLORADO22019
Dolores RivCOLORADO22024
Lake CityCOLORADO22002
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO22012
SummitvilleCOLORADO22024
Dunckley PasCOLORADO21995
Deadman Rd.COLORADO22022
TincupCOLORADO22024
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.