BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pine Grosbeak In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Pine Grosbeak in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-69%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pine Grosbeak has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Pine Grosbeak In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pine Grosbeak in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.13
20270.040.000.13
20280.040.000.13
20290.040.000.13
20300.040.000.13

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Pine Grosbeak in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bald MtnWYOMING72024
Hunter PeakWYOMING52009
Lolo PassIDAHO42019
Skalkho-RyeMONTANA42022
GoldenIDAHO21987
AlturasIDAHO21969
NinemileMONTANA22010
SkalkahoMONTANA21995
Logan PassMONTANA22019
VictorMONTANA22015
Twin LakesWASHINGTON22018
Ne EntranceWYOMING22010
Horse CreekWYOMING22022
Soda LakeWYOMING22004
MivodenIDAHO11989
AveryIDAHO11993
Cape HornIDAHO11987
Nezperce NfIDAHO11999
Marble CreekIDAHO11990
CobaltIDAHO11993
Rochat DivdeIDAHO12022
Libby DamMONTANA11988
St RegisMONTANA11991
ArleeMONTANA12004
WoodmanMONTANA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.