BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pied-billed Grebe In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+131%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pied-billed Grebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Pied-billed Grebe In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 194% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+194%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 194% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.000.65
20270.200.000.65
20280.210.000.65
20290.210.000.65
20300.210.000.65

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cibola LakeARIZONA42022
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA42021
ArabyARIZONA22023
NilandCALIFORNIA22025
LagunaARIZONA12015
Alamo Res.ARIZONA12023
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA12000
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12019
BlytheCALIFORNIA11976
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA12006
Lone PineCALIFORNIA11993
BrawleyCALIFORNIA11988
BeattyNEVADA11986
Ash MeadowsNEVADA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.