BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pied-billed Grebe In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pied-billed Grebe has risen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pied-billed Grebe In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±175.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.35
20260.160.000.36
20270.160.000.36
20280.160.000.36
20290.170.000.36

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Swan LakeNEBRASKA232021
JewellKANSAS71994
Crescent LkNEBRASKA52017
TableNEBRASKA42024
AlbertKANSAS22019
KennedyNEBRASKA22024
GordonNEBRASKA22018
HollisOKLAHOMA22015
WeinertTEXAS21992
KanopolisKANSAS11982
LoganKANSAS12010
MisslerKANSAS11999
BerwetKANSAS12016
StrattonNEBRASKA12013
JohnstownNEBRASKA11969
Piester LakeNEBRASKA12018
ArthurNEBRASKA12019
BrownleeNEBRASKA12018
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA12024
NenzelNEBRASKA12024
HamptonNEBRASKA12019
GrimesOKLAHOMA12016
ErickOKLAHOMA12015
HaskellTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.