BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pied-billed Grebe In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-42%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pied-billed Grebe in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Pied-billed Grebe In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.14
20250.040.000.14
20260.040.000.14
20270.040.000.14
20280.040.000.14

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PanhandleTEXAS212016
KiowaCOLORADO32016
ArsenalCOLORADO31999
Last ChanceCOLORADO22016
LamarCOLORADO21998
HudsonCOLORADO21989
PantexTEXAS22023
WakaTEXAS22021
StonehamCOLORADO12017
AmherstCOLORADO12011
NeegrandeCOLORADO12001
NunnCOLORADO12018
Fort MorganCOLORADO12010
JulesburgCOLORADO12013
Arsenal 2COLORADO12016
LakinKANSAS11978
Agate 2NEBRASKA12023
LoganNEW-MEXICO12005
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO12007
HookerOKLAHOMA12015
LamesaTEXAS11973
FloydadaTEXAS12017
TenmileTEXAS12017
DoughertyTEXAS12015
ClaytonvilleTEXAS12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.