BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pied-billed Grebe In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in Badlands and Prairies has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pied-billed Grebe has collapsed in Badlands and Prairies: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pied-billed Grebe In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.58
20260.070.000.57
20270.070.000.57
20280.070.000.56
20290.060.000.56

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbionMONTANA42014
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA42022
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA31990
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA32015
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA32010
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA32011
KayceeWYOMING32024
RoyMONTANA22017
SavageMONTANA21980
ForsythMONTANA22019
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA21974
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA22012
Fort PierreSOUTH-DAKOTA22024
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA22001
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22002
WyarnoWYOMING21987
NatronaWYOMING21987
RecluseWYOMING22016
LeroyMONTANA12019
BrusettMONTANA12024
JordanMONTANA12018
Two DotMONTANA12017
FlatwillowMONTANA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.