BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pied-billed Grebe In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainWetland birds

Pied-billed Grebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pied-billed Grebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Pied-billed Grebe In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pied-billed Grebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.10
20270.030.000.10
20280.030.000.10
20290.030.000.10
20300.030.000.10

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Pied-billed Grebe in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CastileNEW-YORK61978
North EastonNEW-YORK61990
Herner CrnsOHIO21998
Grand IsleVERMONT21972
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11969
OrleansNEW-YORK12011
E YoungstownNEW-YORK11974
WatertownNEW-YORK11997
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11977
WaddingtonNEW-YORK11998
OgdensburgNEW-YORK12025
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK12009
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA12000
North PownalVERMONT11980
ColchesterVERMONT12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.