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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Palm Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Palm Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+68%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Palm Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Palm Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±382.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±382.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±382.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.060.000.16
20240.060.000.16
20250.060.000.16
20260.060.000.16
20270.060.000.16

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Palm Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clayton Lake 2MAINE92011
WytopitlockMAINE61998
Baker LakeMAINE42005
Clayton LakeMAINE22001
Big TwentyMAINE22007
BiddefordMAINE11976
Wilson MillsMAINE12022
GreenwoodMAINE12006
ReedsMAINE11993
HermonMAINE12011
EastbrookMAINE11994
HancockMAINE12010
AuroraMAINE12009
NorthfieldMAINE11981
Carrying PlMAINE12015
CharlestonMAINE12008
Seboomook LkMAINE12008
GreenvilleMAINE11998
BenedictaMAINE12016
MedwayMAINE12017
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE12000
LudlowMAINE11998
Horse MtnMAINE12001
St DavidMAINE12004
Weeks BrookMAINE12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.