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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Palm Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Palm Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+123%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Palm Warbler has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Palm Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 148% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.14–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+148%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Palm Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 148% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.14–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.130.43
20260.280.130.44
20270.290.140.44
20280.290.140.45
20290.300.140.45

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Palm Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RiverMICHIGAN42016
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN32022
FloodwoodMINNESOTA32024
Crane LakeMINNESOTA32022
IshpemingMICHIGAN22023
CunardMICHIGAN22015
TahquamenonMICHIGAN21995
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN22024
CromwellMINNESOTA22024
Mille LacsMINNESOTA21994
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA22010
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA22022
JordanMINNESOTA22022
GreenbushMINNESOTA22016
ChisholmMINNESOTA22023
MinongWISCONSIN22005
ShanagoldenWISCONSIN21996
RhinelanderWISCONSIN22017
OntonagonMICHIGAN11975
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN12004
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN12016
ShingletonMICHIGAN12024
CreightonMICHIGAN12006
MuskallongeMICHIGAN11980
Betchler LksMICHIGAN12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.