BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Redstart In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Painted Redstart in Sierra Madre Occidental has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+59%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Redstart has risen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Painted Redstart In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Redstart in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.17–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Redstart in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.17–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.181.8
20271.00.181.8
20281.000.171.8
20291.000.171.8
20300.990.171.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Painted Redstart in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA202025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA52025
PortalARIZONA42025
Aztec PeakARIZONA31978
PrescottARIZONA22025
Peña BlancaARIZONA21994
WilliamsARIZONA22001
Carr MtnARIZONA22025
RuckerARIZONA22009
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22023
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO22025
Mormon LakeARIZONA11974
PatagoniaARIZONA12018
SunizonaARIZONA11997
AlpineARIZONA12023
SprucedaleARIZONA12025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.