BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Redstart In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Painted Redstart in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+10%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Redstart in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Painted Redstart In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Painted Redstart in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.96 (95% range 0.14–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.96Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Redstart in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.96 (95% range 0.14–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.151.8
20260.980.151.8
20270.970.141.8
20280.970.141.8
20290.960.141.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Painted Redstart in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PortalARIZONA102024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA52021
Mt. GrahamARIZONA42023
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO42024
Aztec PeakARIZONA31978
PrescottARIZONA22022
Peña BlancaARIZONA21994
WilliamsARIZONA22001
Carr MtnARIZONA22024
RuckerARIZONA22009
ReserveNEW-MEXICO22023
Mormon LakeARIZONA11974
PatagoniaARIZONA12018
SunizonaARIZONA11997
AlpineARIZONA12023
SprucedaleARIZONA12022
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.