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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pacific Wren In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Pacific Wren in BCR 2 has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-15%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pacific Wren in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Pacific Wren In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pacific Wren in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.60.0025
20279.80.0025
20289.90.0026
202910.00.0026
2030100.0026

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Pacific Wren in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChiniakALASKA752025
Kodiak 2ALASKA542025
KodiakALASKA121984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.