BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orange-crowned Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Orange-crowned Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 6.8–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026106.814
2027106.814
2028106.814
2029106.814
2030106.814

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper RiverALASKA932011
Kuiu IslandALASKA632010
CordovaALASKA572024
HoonahALASKA492024
HainesALASKA482025
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA481985
Thompson PasALASKA452025
Stikine RiverALASKA442024
PetersburgALASKA431987
YakutatALASKA432025
SewardALASKA401992
Chichagof IsALASKA342024
CraigALASKA332025
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA332025
LongvaleCALIFORNIA332023
Thorne BayALASKA302012
Sitka (Short)ALASKA301992
HoneydewCALIFORNIA292017
Sheep MtnALASKA282025
HopeALASKA272025
Hazel CampOREGON272022
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA242012
SitkaALASKA212024
TaholahWASHINGTON212022
Moose PassALASKA201992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.