BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Orange-crowned Warbler In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 7.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 7.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.114
2026117.214
2027117.214
2028117.214
2029117.214

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper RiverALASKA932011
HainesALASKA712024
Kuiu IslandALASKA632010
YakutatALASKA602024
CordovaALASKA572024
HopeALASKA542024
Thompson PasALASKA522024
HoonahALASKA492024
Elmendorf (Short)ALASKA481985
Stikine RiverALASKA442024
PetersburgALASKA431987
SewardALASKA401992
Chichagof IsALASKA342024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA332023
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA312024
CraigALASKA302024
Thorne BayALASKA302012
Sitka (Short)ALASKA301992
HoneydewCALIFORNIA292017
Sheep MtnALASKA282017
Hazel CampOREGON272022
Mitkof IsleALASKA252024
Alpenglow (Short)ALASKA242012
SitkaALASKA212024
TaholahWASHINGTON212022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.