BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-87%Since 1982
8Routes In Region
23Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Orange-crowned Warbler has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028
0.00Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.3595% range
±135.4%Backtest error
19742028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.000.000.35
20250.000.000.35
20260.000.000.35
20270.000.000.35
20280.000.000.35

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental.
MaineARIZONA21997
PrescottARIZONA12011
BlueARIZONA11974
AlpineARIZONA12012
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12023
RuckerARIZONA11997
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12011
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.