BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-87%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has collapsed in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Orange-crowned Warbler In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±135.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±135.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.35
20250.000.000.35
20260.000.000.35
20270.000.000.35
20280.000.000.35

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaineARIZONA21997
PrescottARIZONA12011
BlueARIZONA11974
AlpineARIZONA12012
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12023
RuckerARIZONA11997
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12011
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.