BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Coastal California has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+160%Since 1970
87Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Orange-crowned Warbler has surged in Coastal California: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Coastal California is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.1–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029
5.6Projected 2029 index
3.1–8.295% range
±67.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.42.98.0
20265.52.98.0
20275.53.08.1
20285.63.08.1
20295.63.18.2

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Coastal California.
RumseyCALIFORNIA452008
S CatalinaCALIFORNIA442022
Santa Cruz ICALIFORNIA421988
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA412024
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA362024
Glen EllenCALIFORNIA302004
FolsomCALIFORNIA212024
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA192018
CoyoteCALIFORNIA192022
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA172024
CohassetCALIFORNIA142024
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA122023
PowayCALIFORNIA121980
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA122024
FairfaxCALIFORNIA112019
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA112015
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA102024
PescaderoCALIFORNIA82024
StonyfordCALIFORNIA82018
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA71996
San YsidroCALIFORNIA62019
AuburnCALIFORNIA61979
PolomaCALIFORNIA62024
ColmaCALIFORNIA51972
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.