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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2 has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-29%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Orange-crowned Warbler In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 107% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 12–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+107%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 107% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 12–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025281145
2026281145
2027281145
2028281145
2029291245

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Katmai N.P.ALASKA962022
DillinghamALASKA892019
Gweek RiverALASKA452002
St. Mary'SALASKA442014
KodiakALASKA431984
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA411984
Kodiak 2ALASKA372024
NomeALASKA342023
ChiniakALASKA252024
King SalmonALASKA242024
Togiak RiverALASKA242005
TupuknukALASKA191995
Salmon LakeALASKA182024
CouncilALASKA122024
TellerALASKA52024
Goodnews BayALASKA32005
Cape NomeALASKA22024
Cold BayALASKA12023
Kanektok RivALASKA12005
KotzebueALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.