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Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orange-crowned Warbler In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Forest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2 has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-39%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Orange-crowned Warbler In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 11–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2 is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 11–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271044
2027271144
2028271144
2029281144
2030281145

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DillinghamALASKA892019
Gweek RiverALASKA452002
St. Mary'SALASKA442014
KodiakALASKA431984
Dillingham (Short)ALASKA411984
King SalmonALASKA392025
NomeALASKA342023
Katmai N.P.ALASKA322025
ChiniakALASKA252025
Togiak RiverALASKA242005
Kodiak 2ALASKA232025
TupuknukALASKA191995
Salmon LakeALASKA182024
CouncilALASKA122024
TellerALASKA52024
Goodnews BayALASKA32005
Cape NomeALASKA22024
Cold BayALASKA12023
Kanektok RivALASKA12005
KotzebueALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.