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Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orange-crowned Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 988% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+988%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 988% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Orange-crowned Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.75–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.75–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.75–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.681.7
20261.20.701.8
20271.20.711.8
20281.30.731.8
20291.30.751.8

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO152024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO142024
Baxter PassCOLORADO132024
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO132024
AspenCOLORADO122024
Dolores RivCOLORADO102024
Douglas PassCOLORADO72024
Blackhead PkCOLORADO72021
YampaCOLORADO62023
Groundhog RsCOLORADO62024
NuclaCOLORADO62024
Black Sulphur CrCOLORADO62024
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO52024
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO52012
FayetteUTAH52018
Canyon RimsUTAH52018
DeltaCOLORADO42021
ColonaCOLORADO42012
UncompahgreCOLORADO42024
Lake City 2COLORADO42024
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO42009
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO42024
BeckUTAH41987
La Sal 3UTAH42024
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO31982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.