BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orange-crowned Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Orange-crowned Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

13×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orange-crowned Warbler has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Orange-crowned Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.77–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.77–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orange-crowned Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.77–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.701.8
20271.20.721.8
20281.30.731.8
20291.30.751.8
20301.30.771.8

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Orange-crowned Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO162025
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO152025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO132025
Baxter PassCOLORADO132024
UncompahgreCOLORADO122025
ThomasvilleCOLORADO122025
Wilson CreekCOLORADO82025
Mcphee Res.COLORADO82025
Douglas PassCOLORADO72024
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO72025
YampaCOLORADO62023
Dolores RivCOLORADO62025
Colona 2COLORADO62025
Rifle FallsCOLORADO52025
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO52012
Canyon RimsUTAH52018
DeltaCOLORADO42021
ColonaCOLORADO42012
Willow PeakCOLORADO42025
Dunckley PasCOLORADO42025
Fox CreekCOLORADO42025
NuclaCOLORADO42025
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO42009
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO42024
BeckUTAH41987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.