BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Olive Warbler Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

Olive Warbler in New Mexico has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+87%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Olive Warbler Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive Warbler in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Olive Warbler Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Olive Warbler in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive Warbler in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.18
20270.070.000.18
20280.070.000.18
20290.070.000.18
20300.070.000.18

Olive Warbler Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Olive Warbler in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vicks Peak220042001
Emory Pass120251993
Reserve120251994

Olive Warbler Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.