BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Great Basin has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-36%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Olive-sided Flycatcher In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.10–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.10–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.141.2
20260.640.131.1
20270.630.121.1
20280.610.111.1
20290.600.101.1

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MacdoelCALIFORNIA232019
Davis LakeOREGON182024
PauninaOREGON152024
PaisleyOREGON132024
SistersOREGON112024
ChinchaloOREGON112024
BartleCALIFORNIA82021
LakeviewOREGON72024
RimrockWASHINGTON72024
Wizard FallsOREGON62024
Dell SpringOREGON51999
Modoc Point 2OREGON52024
SnowdenWASHINGTON52024
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA42017
BlyOREGON42001
Bly 2OREGON42024
Bald Mtn.OREGON42024
NewhalemWASHINGTON42024
TionestaCALIFORNIA32021
Mt HoodOREGON32024
Lapham Res.OREGON32024
RonaldWASHINGTON32024
MazamaWASHINGTON32022
YakimaWASHINGTON31996
HackamoreCALIFORNIA22010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.