BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Olive-sided Flycatcher has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.8
20260.990.002.7
20270.910.002.6
20280.830.002.5
20290.750.002.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA161970
French GulchCALIFORNIA152010
HoonahALASKA112024
CinderellaOREGON102024
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA91996
Secret ValOREGON92022
Mitkof IsleALASKA82013
Chichagof IsALASKA82024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA82017
Warm BeachWASHINGTON82017
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON82024
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON82024
Cool CampOREGON72013
SvensenOREGON71992
Elk LakeOREGON72024
ProspectOREGON72024
PetersburgALASKA61987
MccloudCALIFORNIA62021
UkiahCALIFORNIA62011
CamasWASHINGTON62009
IlwacoWASHINGTON62024
Fish RockCALIFORNIA52014
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA52019
DirigioCALIFORNIA52014
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA52016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.