BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Olive-sided Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Olive-sided Flycatcher has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Olive-sided Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.002.8
20270.990.002.7
20280.910.002.6
20290.830.002.5
20300.740.002.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hurricane RgWASHINGTON172025
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA161970
IlwacoWASHINGTON162025
French GulchCALIFORNIA152010
Elk LakeOREGON152025
HoonahALASKA112024
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON102025
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA91996
ShellrockOREGON92024
Sheep MtnALASKA82025
Mitkof IsleALASKA82013
Chichagof IsALASKA82024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA82017
Warm BeachWASHINGTON82017
HopeALASKA72025
Cool CampOREGON72013
SvensenOREGON71992
Blue RiverOREGON72025
CinderellaOREGON72025
SelmaOREGON72025
PetersburgALASKA61987
MccloudCALIFORNIA62021
UkiahCALIFORNIA62011
CamasWASHINGTON62009
Fish RockCALIFORNIA52014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.