BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-34%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2013, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2013TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2013 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2013, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712013
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20090.020.000.09
20100.020.000.09
20110.020.000.09
20120.020.000.09
20130.020.000.09

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoldstoneCALIFORNIA11997
Lone PineCALIFORNIA12002
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.