BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Olive-sided Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Olive-sided Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Olive-sided Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Olive-sided Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Olive-sided Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.36
20260.150.000.35
20270.140.000.35
20280.140.000.35
20290.140.000.35

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Olive-sided Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA42018
Lake CityMICHIGAN31986
Seney NwrMICHIGAN32024
GooseneckMICHIGAN32009
HovlandMINNESOTA31989
BemidjiMINNESOTA31980
GreenbushMINNESOTA32008
Union TwpWISCONSIN31986
Sand LakeMICHIGAN21988
Island LakeMINNESOTA21984
ChisholmMINNESOTA22024
MinongWISCONSIN22004
ExelandWISCONSIN21988
OntonagonMICHIGAN12017
BerglandMICHIGAN12019
MareniscoMICHIGAN12016
BootjackMICHIGAN11998
Ned LakeMICHIGAN12022
HermanMICHIGAN11984
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN12011
Maple GroveMICHIGAN11993
IshpemingMICHIGAN12021
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN12016
CunardMICHIGAN12014
ShingletonMICHIGAN12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.