BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Oak Titmouse In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Oak Titmouse in Great Basin has surged: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+356%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Oak Titmouse has surged in Great Basin: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Oak Titmouse In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Oak Titmouse in Great Basin is projected to rise about 90% by 2024 — from 0.17 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.17–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+90%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Oak Titmouse in Great Basin is projected to rise about 90% by 2024 — from 0.17 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.17–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.310.140.47
20210.310.150.48
20220.320.150.48
20230.330.160.49
20240.330.170.49

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Oak Titmouse in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron GateCALIFORNIA252019
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA92011
MacdoelCALIFORNIA42018
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA22014
BartleCALIFORNIA22015
NubieberCALIFORNIA12018
DorrisCALIFORNIA12012
TionestaCALIFORNIA12018
MerrillOREGON11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.