BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Oak Titmouse In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Oak Titmouse in Coastal California has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Oak Titmouse has risen sharply in Coastal California: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Oak Titmouse In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Oak Titmouse in Coastal California is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Oak Titmouse in Coastal California is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.7–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025137.517
2026137.618
2027137.618
2028137.718
2029137.718

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Oak Titmouse in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White RiverCALIFORNIA801992
AuburnCALIFORNIA581980
SisquocCALIFORNIA502014
JacksonCALIFORNIA431992
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA422011
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA412024
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA412024
RumseyCALIFORNIA372008
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA362016
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA342024
CoyoteCALIFORNIA342024
Gold HillCALIFORNIA312024
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA301997
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA282024
South LakeCALIFORNIA272006
LockwoodCALIFORNIA262024
ColmaCALIFORNIA241972
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA232019
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA231996
FolsomCALIFORNIA222024
Morro BayCALIFORNIA212019
Red BluffCALIFORNIA202024
San Benito Mtn.CALIFORNIA202009
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA182003
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.