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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Wheatear Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Northern Wheatear in Alaska has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+12%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Wheatear Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Wheatear in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Northern Wheatear Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Wheatear in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Wheatear in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.13
20260.050.000.13
20270.050.000.13
20280.050.000.13
20290.050.000.13

Northern Wheatear Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Northern Wheatear in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy Valley319931993
Ruby220242024
Teller220121993
Council220121993
Mt. Fairplay120152015
Nome120121993
Salmon Lake120121994
Toklat120241982
Cape Nome120072007
Galbraith L.120151996
Tangle Lakes119871987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.