Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Waterthrush In Northern Pacific Rainforest
Northern Waterthrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1983.
+90%Since 1983
19Routes In Region
37Years
Notable Signals
long arc increasecomputed index
Northern Waterthrush has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1983.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.04–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-37%Change by 2029
0.22Projected 2029 index
0.04–0.3995% range
±38.1%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| 2026 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| 2027 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| 2028 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.39 |
| 2029 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.39 |
Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest
| Thompson Pas | ALASKA | 15 | 2024 |
| Elmendorf (Short) | ALASKA | 8 | 1985 |
| Haines | ALASKA | 4 | 2024 |
| Copper River | ALASKA | 4 | 2011 |
| Seward | ALASKA | 3 | 1984 |
| Moose Pass | ALASKA | 3 | 1985 |
| Hope | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Alpenglow (Short) | ALASKA | 3 | 2012 |
| Stikine River | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Ketchikan | ALASKA | 2 | 1971 |
| Yakutat | ALASKA | 2 | 2004 |
| Kenai Lake (Short) | ALASKA | 2 | 1984 |
| Juneau | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Cordova | ALASKA | 1 | 2016 |
| Sheep Mtn | ALASKA | 1 | 2011 |
| Thorne Bay | ALASKA | 1 | 1990 |
| Harlequin L. | ALASKA | 1 | 2021 |
| Skagway | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Hyder | ALASKA | 1 | 2004 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.