BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Waterthrush In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Waterthrush has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Waterthrush In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.01–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.010.13
20270.070.010.13
20280.070.010.13
20290.070.010.13
20300.070.010.13

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E HartlandCONNECTICUT21971
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT22025
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT21998
MarionMASSACHUSETTS22025
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE21997
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND22025
MysticCONNECTICUT12002
WoodstockCONNECTICUT12005
WillimanticCONNECTICUT12018
ShermanCONNECTICUT11980
DanburyCONNECTICUT12015
WarrenCONNECTICUT12008
Long HillCONNECTICUT12018
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT12023
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT11985
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT12025
GranbyCONNECTICUT12023
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS12018
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS12015
LittletonMASSACHUSETTS12014
N OxfordMASSACHUSETTS12024
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS12019
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS12024
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS11985
HoldenMASSACHUSETTS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.