BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Waterthrush In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Northern Waterthrush In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA102024
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA41979
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA31978
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA32023
VindexMARYLAND22014
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY21990
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY22023
E NewarkNEW-YORK21971
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA21974
LoguePENNSYLVANIA21999
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA22024
WallerPENNSYLVANIA22017
Pocono SummitPENNSYLVANIA21997
VirginiaPENNSYLVANIA21973
St CollegePENNSYLVANIA21977
ClearfieldPENNSYLVANIA21981
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA21992
DaileyWEST-VIRGINIA22022
Mt NeboMARYLAND11972
JenningsMARYLAND12015
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY11974
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY11996
High PointNEW-JERSEY12006
DoverNEW-JERSEY12015
RiftonNEW-YORK11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.