BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Waterthrush In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Northern Waterthrush In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07
20300.030.000.07

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA41979
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA31978
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA32023
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA32025
VindexMARYLAND22014
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY21990
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY22023
E NewarkNEW-YORK21971
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA21974
LoguePENNSYLVANIA21999
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA22024
WallerPENNSYLVANIA22017
Pocono SummitPENNSYLVANIA21997
VirginiaPENNSYLVANIA21973
St CollegePENNSYLVANIA21977
ClearfieldPENNSYLVANIA21981
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA21992
DaileyWEST-VIRGINIA22022
Mt NeboMARYLAND11972
JenningsMARYLAND12015
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY11974
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY11996
High PointNEW-JERSEY12025
DoverNEW-JERSEY12015
RiftonNEW-YORK11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.