Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Waterthrush In BCR 2
Northern Waterthrush in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
-55%Since 1987
19Routes In Region
34Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Northern Waterthrush has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1987.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-69%Change by 2029
3.2Projected 2029 index
0.00–1495% range
±77.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 15 |
| 2026 | 4.2 | 0.00 | 15 |
| 2027 | 3.9 | 0.00 | 15 |
| 2028 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 14 |
| 2029 | 3.2 | 0.00 | 14 |
Routes In BCR 2
| Gweek River | ALASKA | 129 | 2002 |
| Tupuknuk | ALASKA | 126 | 1995 |
| Council | ALASKA | 47 | 2024 |
| Selawik (Short) | ALASKA | 42 | 1987 |
| Dillingham (Short) | ALASKA | 39 | 1984 |
| Togiak River | ALASKA | 36 | 2005 |
| Salmon Lake | ALASKA | 32 | 2024 |
| Nome | ALASKA | 21 | 2023 |
| Goodnews Bay | ALASKA | 18 | 2005 |
| Kugarak (Short) | ALASKA | 18 | 1987 |
| Kanektok Riv | ALASKA | 15 | 2005 |
| St. Mary'S | ALASKA | 7 | 2014 |
| Dillingham | ALASKA | 5 | 2019 |
| King Salmon | ALASKA | 4 | 2024 |
| Cape Nome | ALASKA | 4 | 2024 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | ALASKA | 4 | 1994 |
| Teller | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Kotzebue | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Katmai N.P. | ALASKA | 2 | 2005 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.