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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Waterthrush In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in Atlantic Northern Forest has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Waterthrush in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Northern Waterthrush In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.710.341.1
20260.700.331.1
20270.700.331.1
20280.690.321.1
20290.690.321.1

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St DavidMAINE72005
S HoriconNEW-YORK72017
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK72017
WashburnMAINE62005
Pillsbury PdMAINE51968
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
DebloisMAINE41987
TelosMAINE42006
Heron LakeMAINE42003
Big Twenty 2MAINE42009
HighmarketNEW-YORK42024
North RiverNEW-YORK42004
East TroyMAINE32017
MedwayMAINE32018
Clayton LakeMAINE32008
LudlowMAINE31998
Horse MtnMAINE32011
Big TwentyMAINE32008
Weeks BrookMAINE32016
YankeetuladiMAINE32009
AndoverMAINE32021
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE32021
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE32023
InletNEW-YORK32017
New HartfordCONNECTICUT21979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.