BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Waterthrush In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Waterthrush has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Waterthrush In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.040.22
20260.130.040.22
20270.130.040.22
20280.130.040.22
20290.130.040.23

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParishvilleNEW-YORK32023
PulaskiNEW-YORK22023
ArgyleNEW-YORK21999
NaplesNEW-YORK22015
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11974
HighlandNEW-YORK11994
W ShokanNEW-YORK11988
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11990
CatskillsNEW-YORK12010
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11967
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12024
MacdougallNEW-YORK11996
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11992
OrleansNEW-YORK11974
RushvilleNEW-YORK12007
SheridanNEW-YORK11995
Cherry HillNEW-YORK12009
NashvilleNEW-YORK11989
ByronNEW-YORK12007
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK12019
N Victory 2NEW-YORK12002
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12024
WatertownNEW-YORK12011
Alder CreekNEW-YORK12002
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.