BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Waterthrush In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+71%Since 1968
46Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Waterthrush has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029
0.13Projected 2029 index
0.04–0.2395% range
±41.5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.130.040.22
20260.130.040.22
20270.130.040.22
20280.130.040.22
20290.130.040.23

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
ParishvilleNEW-YORK32023
PulaskiNEW-YORK22023
ArgyleNEW-YORK21999
NaplesNEW-YORK22015
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11974
HighlandNEW-YORK11994
W ShokanNEW-YORK11988
AusterlitzNEW-YORK11990
CatskillsNEW-YORK12010
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11967
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12024
MacdougallNEW-YORK11996
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11992
OrleansNEW-YORK11974
RushvilleNEW-YORK12007
SheridanNEW-YORK11995
Cherry HillNEW-YORK12009
NashvilleNEW-YORK11989
ByronNEW-YORK12007
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK12019
N Victory 2NEW-YORK12002
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12024
WatertownNEW-YORK12011
Alder CreekNEW-YORK12002
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.