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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Waterthrush In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern Waterthrush in Boreal Hardwood Transition has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Waterthrush in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Northern Waterthrush In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.31–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.67Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Waterthrush in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.67 (95% range 0.31–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.291.0
20260.660.301.0
20270.660.301.0
20280.670.301.0
20290.670.311.0

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Waterthrush in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MareniscoMICHIGAN112019
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA102024
Brush CreekMICHIGAN82012
WaskishMINNESOTA82024
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN71996
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA72022
FloodwoodMINNESOTA52024
IsabellaMICHIGAN42004
CavourWISCONSIN42023
GilchristMICHIGAN32021
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN32024
EnsignMICHIGAN32008
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA32023
HovlandMINNESOTA31992
BabbittMINNESOTA32014
BigforkMINNESOTA32023
BlackduckMINNESOTA32022
GlendaleMINNESOTA32024
Red LakeMINNESOTA32023
ChaffeyWISCONSIN32013
MontrealWISCONSIN32024
WausaukeeWISCONSIN32023
FlambeauWISCONSIN32024
BerglandMICHIGAN22019
BootjackMICHIGAN21970

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.