BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Saw-whet Owl In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Northern Saw-whet Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-22%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Saw-whet Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Northern Saw-whet Owl In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Saw-whet Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Saw-whet Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.04
20260.020.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04
20290.010.000.04

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Northern Saw-whet Owl in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harlequin L.ALASKA32003
CraigALASKA12018
CordovaALASKA12003
YakutatALASKA12001
Mitkof IsleALASKA12017
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA12022
Zimovia StrtALASKA12015
Whale PassALASKA12018
ZaremboALASKA12015
Chichagof IsALASKA11998
Copper RiverALASKA12011
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA11989
KorbelCALIFORNIA11997
UkiahCALIFORNIA12001
SaladoOREGON11980
Cool CampOREGON11998
ScioOREGON11992
Blue RiverOREGON12019
Myrtle GroveOREGON12023
MolallaOREGON12024
Riley PeakOREGON12010
Mt St HelensWASHINGTON12004
Mt RainierWASHINGTON12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.